In my experience, I feel that playing head-to-head contests over 50/50 or double-up contests tends to yield a better return on investment in cases where my lineup in any given week does not perform well. When my lineup does not perform well, I would likely not win any 50/50 or double-up contest as my lineup would always fall under the 50th percentile of lineup scores. Head-to-head contests, on the other hand, I may run into a few lineups just as bad as mine and salvage a couple losses there. The flip side to playing like this: If my lineup does perform above the 50th percentile I would likely win 100 percent of 50/50 contests, whereas it is a guarantee that head-to-head contests would yield opponents that will score better and I would not take 100 percent of the contests I enter.
My goal here is to share my result with everyone. I will try to post this every week whether I win or lose (hopefully more win than lose).
Like most people, especially in season long leagues, I was burned by Rams RB Todd Gurley in 2016. The Rams drawing a match-up against the Colts in Week 1 however, will make you re-think everything quick. I should start by saying, that looking at the Week 1 match-ups, the Colts visiting the Rams, in my opinion, was a great defensive match-up for the Rams. Colts QB Andrew Luck was ruled out for Week 1 and the Colts were starting Scott Tolzien who honestly, may be the worst QBs in the NFL. With Rams DEF being a must play, getting a great RB/DEF correlation play in Gurley fit perfectly with the 20+ touches opportunity.
Zach Ertz Week 1 price was favorable beyond words. For Ertz, it's always been about opportunity. Over the past couple seasons, Ertz has seen his fair share of injuries, lackluster QB play, and WRs taking the target share. The situation this week: $3,500 for a TE with great hands, finally a good QB who is predicted to have a breakout year, and the new top tier WR (Alshon Jeffery) being shadowed by shutdown CB Josh Norman. Remember what I said about opportunity?
Fill It In
To fit Bell into my lineup, I needed savings. Initially, I wanted to play either Marcus Mariota or Derek Carr at QB to have exposure to the Raiders @ Titans game with a high expected game total. Because of that high expected game score, their salaries were justifiably elevated. With that said, something became increasingly obvious to me. Carson Wentz, as a starting QB, was incredibly under priced and created a great stack with TE Zach Ertz. Done!
Cue the value chalk play of the week: Kendall Wright. Cameron Meredith tore his ACL and was out for the season, Markus Wheaton broke a finger and wasn't playing, and Kevin White was the only other WR option in that offense. Wright was a pretty easy choice at $3,200 to receive a decent volume.
I still wanted a piece of the Raiders @ Titans game, at this point, with plenty of salary remaining. I liked the Raiders WR's more than the Titans because I feel like it is a much more concentrated game plan that flows through either Amari Cooper or Michael Crabtree. While I projected more targets for Cooper, Crabtree is a better red zone play and provided me with decent enough savings to afford a serviceable second RB.
Paying down to Crabtree allowed me to afford Falcons RB Devonta Freeman. The Falcons had a great projected team total and were facing a Chicago team that is no defensive gem.
Total score for my lineup: 143.48 points. That was good enough in this particular week to win 86.96% of my head-to-head contests.
Overall, I feel like the cash line for this past week was slightly lower than average. I believe the winner of the highly advertised "Billion Dollar Perfect Lineup" contest won with a score in the 230 point range, where most weeks I feel like you need closer to 250 points to take down a large pool tournament.