In my experience, I feel that playing head-to-head contests over 50/50 or double-up contests tends to yield a better return on investment in cases where my lineup in any given week does not perform well. When my lineup does not perform well, I would likely not win any 50/50 or double-up contest as my lineup would always fall under the 50th percentile of lineup scores. Head-to-head contests, on the other hand, I may run into a few lineups just as bad as mine and salvage a couple losses there. The flip side to playing like this: If my lineup does perform above the 50th percentile I would likely win 100 percent of 50/50 contests, whereas it is a guarantee that head-to-head contests would yield opponents that will score better and I would not take 100 percent of the contests I enter.
My goal here is to share my result with everyone. I will try to post this every week whether I win or lose (hopefully more win than lose).
For me, I wanted to see how much exposure I could get to those projected shootouts and high scoring team totals as hard as it would be to stack the high salaries.
Packers RB Ty Montgomery was my other must play for Week 2. Montgomery's salary must have gotten lost in the lint trap like the one sock that never seems to have a match. The Falcons struggle with pass catchers coming out of the backfield, which is precisely the Packers game plan in the way Montgomery is used. At $5,800, Montgomery was likely going to be in everyone's lineup. It's just too cheap for a RB who will likely see 20+ touches in a match-up that yielded a 65 total game score in BOTH meetings of 2016.
The fun part of DraftKings pricing is when a team that plays on Monday Night Football is not properly adjusted for the new week. This is because DraftKings releases prices for the following week every Monday, before MNF. The Chargers are the next contestant on The Price is Right! Come on down! The price for the Chargers went pretty much un-adjusted from Week 1 into Week 2, meaning they were priced relative to their away match-up against the Broncos, in the reality of a home game against a much weaker secondary, in the Dolphins. WR Keenan Allen, who saw double digit targets in the "No Fly Zone," mile high defense in Week 1, being priced under $6K was a must play, in my opinion.
Sticking with the Chargers, I find it impossible not to notice Phillip Rivers' price tag ($5,800). The other QBs around him: Andrew Luck (out), Jimmy Garapolo and Derek Anderson (backup QBs), and Dak Prescott (playing in DEN). Rivers is just far too cheap with good receivers against a weak secondary, and playing at home. Stacked in a lineup with his main target, Keenan Allen, gave me more reason to play Rivers in cash.
Following suit with the rest of the fantasy community, allow me to give ESPN's Chris Mortensen his due props for his Tarik Cohen call in the preseason. Mortensen's take on Cohen came while the Bears were keeping him a secret before finally unleashing him in Week 1. Sure it feels like a "chasing points" kind of play based on recency bias, but Cohen seems to have a significant, defined role carved out in Chicago's offense. Fellow RB Jordan Howard spent most of the week on an injury report and was limited in practice at the end of the week. Partnered with the Bears lack of offensive weapons, they have to move the ball some how. In Week 1, we saw Chicago play Cohen both out of the backfield and switch him into a slot receiver position. $4,100 was a great value for the role player Cohen seems to be, as long as Chicago continues to use him as they did in Week 1.
Fill It In
Clearing up additional salary with Fleener in my TE position and paying down at QB instead of the top 4 guys allowed me to spend up a little more at WR as I wanted to do this week. As I outlined in my Week 1 Cash Lineup Review, I liked Larry Fitzgerald to start the season. With the latest injury to the Cardinals star RB David Johnson, and fellow WR John Brown out in Week 2, I saw no reason, after getting peppered with double digit targets in Week 1, why Week 2 would not be the same for Fitzgerald.
I had been looking at the Ravens D/ST at the beginning of the week, but mostly wanted to try to fit in the Seahawks D/ST as the week progressed. With the Seahawks, I wasn't confident with the final WR spot I was looking to fill. I went back to the Ravens as they too were at home, and in a favorable match-up against the Browns, which I didn't see much of a difference in with the Seahawks playing the 49ers.
Deciding on the Ravens D/ST over the Seahawks allowed me to get Randall Cobb in my FLEX spot and gave me exposure to the Green Bay offense playing in Atlanta.
My final score was 151.24, and I only won an even 48% of my head-to-head contests. I scored more points this week than I did in Week 1, but lost a higher percentage of my head-to-head contests. I don't blame the process I chose to take. I set out with a plan to not pay up for one of the four higher salary QBs with intentions on paying a specific price range at WR. It just wasn't the right plan for this particular week, so I will re-evaluate things going forward, and start fresh in Week 3. That is the great thing about DFS; Every week is a clean slate.
Week 2: 151.24 points, won 48.00% on head-to-heads